Political turmoil causes Bangladesh iGaming downturn

Despite the existing prohibition on betting and casino operations in Bangladesh, Blask’s advanced AI platform, utilizing computer vision and natural language processing models, was able to analyze real-time market data during the period of political transition.

Blask Index, our key metric for quantifying the size and sentiment of the iGaming market, revealed a significant drop in key performance indicators within the Bangladeshi iGaming sector after the change in leadership.

By employing metrics such as Blask Index, Relative Market Share, eFTD (Expected First Time Depositors) and eGGR (Expected Gross Gaming Revenue), we can conduct a detailed daily analysis of the dynamic changes within the entire iGaming market in Bangladesh.

This report was created in collaboration with Next.io.

Blask Index — falls and rises.

Blask Index, which measures the overall activity and health of the iGaming market in Bangladesh, showed significant fluctuations coinciding with the political events from 19 to 22 July 2024.

On 18 July, the index registered at 757k. Following a police ban on public gatherings on 19 July, the index experienced a sharp decline to 70k. This drop aligned with the intensification of protests in the country.

As events unfolded, the index showed some recovery, reaching 262k on 20 July. However, it remained at lower levels of 171k and 222k on 21 and 22 July respectively, corresponding with the government’s implementation of a curfew and deployment of the army.

The temporary suspension of protests on 22 July correlated with the beginning of the index’s recovery. Blask Index rose to 653k on 23 July and further to 843k on 24 July, indicating a gradual stabilization of iGaming market activity.

After 25 July, as the political situation normalized, Blask Index returned to its typical range of 850k to 1 million daily, suggesting a return to regular market conditions in the Bangladesh iGaming sector.

Relative market share and daily brand position analysis.

17-18 July: Pre-coup market stability.

• On 17 July, Baji led the market with a 27.57% share, followed closely by BABU88 at 22.89%. The next day, Baji strengthened its position to 29.26%, while BABU88 slightly declined to 20.06%. Crickex and 1xBet maintained their positions in the top 4

19 July: Dramatic market shift.

The day of the coup saw a significant reshuffling:

• A significant shift occurred, with Baji (35.59%) and Crickex (34.98%) taking the lead. BABU88 (20.25%) remained in the top three but saw a decrease in its share.
• 1xBet fell sharply to fifth place with only 1.66%, JeetBuzz entered the top 5 with 3.29%.

20-22 July: Market volatility intensifies.

• 1xBet dramatically increased its market share, peaking at 53.97% on 21 July. This suggests it capitalised on the instability.
• BABU88’s share dropped significantly, reaching a low of 0.54% by 21 July.

23-24 July: Signs of market stabilisation.

• As the situation stabilised, Baji and Crickex regained some market share, while 1xBet’s dominance decreased.
• BABU88 recovered slightly but did not return to its former position.

Brand exiting top positions.

• BABU88 experienced the most significant decline, dropping from a top position to a much lower market share by 21 July. This suggests operational challenges or an inability to adapt quickly to the changing market conditions during the unrest.

Recovery and redistribution.

After 22 July, as Blask Index began to recover, the market started to redistribute. Larger brands like Baji and Crickex regained their positions, while 1xBet maintained a strong presence but with reduced dominance.

Impact of political situation on the Bangladesh iGaming market.

The political unrest in Bangladesh during July 2024 significantly impacted the iGaming market, as reflected in key performance indicators.

Estimated First Time Depositors (eFTD).

eFTD, a metric that estimates the number of new players making their first deposit on an iGaming platform, dropped from 968,000 in June to 868,000 in July. This 10.3% decrease suggests a notable decline in player acquisition during the period of political instability.

Estimated Gross Gaming Revenue (eGGR).

eGGR, approximating the total amount wagered minus winnings paid out, decreased from $78m in June to $75m in July, a 3.8% reduction. This indicates a slight downturn in the overall market.

Top 5 brands performance.

Baji.

eFTD: June – 237 000; July – 223 000

eGGR: June – $21M; July – $21M

Despite a slight decrease in new depositors, Baji maintained its revenue, suggesting strong player retention.

BABU88.

eFTD: June – 190 000; July – 180 000

eGGR: June – $14M; July – $14M

BABU88 saw a significant drop in new depositors but managed to maintain its revenue.

Crickex.

eFTD: June – 157 000; July – 149 000

eGGR: June – $13M; July – $13M

Crickex experienced a minor decrease in new depositors while maintaining stable revenue.

1xBet.

eFTD: June – 116 000; July – 113 000

eGGR: June – $8.6M; July – $8.8M

1xBet showed resilience with a slight increase in revenue despite fewer new depositors.

Krikya.

eFTD: June – 75 000; July – 74 000

eGGR: June – $5.8M; July – $5.9M

Krikya maintained stable metrics with a slight increase in revenue.

Correlation with market share and Blask Index.

The fluctuations in eFTD and eGGR align with the changes observed in market share and Blask Index data during the political unrest. The overall decrease in eFTD (10.3%) corresponds with the sharp decline in the Blask Index from 19-22 July. However, the smaller decrease in eGGR (3.8%) suggests that existing players continued to engage, albeit at a reduced rate.

The resilience of top brands like Baji and 1xBet in maintaining or slightly increasing their eGGR despite decreased eFTD aligns with their strong market share positions during the crisis.

The data suggests that while the political situation significantly impacted new player acquisition, overall revenue was more stable, likely due to continued activity from existing players and the ability of top brands to adapt to challenging market conditions.

Conclusion.

The Blask analysis reveals a market that, while initially shocked by the coup and subsequent unrest, demonstrated a remarkable ability to recover and stabilise within a relatively short period.

Market volatility: The dramatic shifts in market share among top operators highlight the sensitivity of the iGaming industry to political instability. This volatility underscores the need for operators to maintain flexible strategies and robust risk management practices.

Rapid recovery: Despite the sharp initial decline in the Blask Index, the market showed signs of recovery within days, indicating a strong underlying demand for iGaming services even in times of crisis.

Changing competitive landscape: The emergence of new players in the top rankings and the fluctuating fortunes of established brands suggest that periods of upheaval can create opportunities for market disruption and realignment.

Resilience of leading brands: While experiencing significant short-term fluctuations, major operators like Baji, BABU88, and Crickex demonstrated their ability to maintain substantial market presence throughout the crisis.

Data-driven insights: The real-time analytics provided by Blask’s AI-driven platform prove crucial for understanding market dynamics in rapidly changing environments, especially in markets with complex regulatory landscapes.

This analysis not only provides a snapshot of the Bangladesh iGaming market during a critical period but also serves as a case study for the broader industry on how political events can impact market dynamics.

Our mission is to shed light on iGaming markets worldwide, regardless of their regulatory status. By leveraging the power of AI and big data, we aim to foster transparency and support the growth of the industry in a responsible manner.
Max Tesla, CEO and Co-Founder of Blask

The Blask team continues to monitor the situation in Bangladesh.

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