The Brazil betting ban put demand back at September 2022 level

Two weeks of the decree gave back the gains made after 2022, and left the earlier boom in place.

In Brazil, Blask Index rose about 30 times from January 2020 to the April 2026 peak. The licensed book under that climb is young: federal fixed-odds authorisations went live on 1 January 2025, under Law 14.790 of December 2023.

The Brazil betting ban, Provisional Measure 1,394, published on 25 September, closed new deposits that day and took licensed sites offline on 6 October. The monthly series shows how little the market stood above September 2022. The daily series separates onshore from offshore once deposits stopped.

The climb from 2016 to 2026

The annual average tripled between 2016 and 2019, climbed twelvefold from 2020 to 2022, and added about 80% from 2022 to 2025. September returned that last stretch, and the 2020–2022 rise remains.

September 2026 finished 2% below the same month in 2022. Through 24 September, search was running about a third above that mark, and August had already come back to 7% over it. The next six days closed a gap those first weeks had reopened.

Demand after the Brazil betting ban

Onshore and offshore search both spiked the day after deposits closed, then licensed demand collapsed and offshore demand fell back to that day’s level.

The offshore share of the total rose from 5% on 25 September to 29% on 9 October. Blask Index covers search, so queries that left licensed brands read as a shift into social, pop-under, and direct, the channels this series does not pick up.

September’s revenue baseline is about three times the September 2022 level. Blask estimates competitive earning baseline (CEB, Blask’s projected revenue baseline) at $759M average for the month, against $243M when the whole book was offshore.

The step in January 2025 is the licence launch, when authorised operators take the book. Onshore brands held 96.5% of September CEB and 94.7% of search, against 3.5% and 5.3% offshore. Twenty-four of the month’s 30 days came before the decree, which is why the size split describes a licensed market.

Bottom line

Licences granted under Law 14.790 expire on 25 October, less than two weeks from now. Search demand is already at a four-year-old level, and the September revenue baseline belongs to the days before the decree. Congress can still convert, amend, or drop the measure, with a first deadline of 23 November and one 60-day extension still open.