Licensed operators are losing share to the unlicensed segment, despite overall demand growth. This trend was visible in Blask data long before Spelinspektionen’s annual report confirmed it.
On June 15, the Swedish gambling regulator Spelinspektionen published its annual channelization rate report, confirming a one percentage point decline to 84% in 2025. The indicator will feed directly into Sweden’s national budget bill as the primary market control benchmark. However, behind the headline number lies a broader problem.
Spelinspektionen calculates channelization rate as the average of two methods: a player survey and internet traffic analysis. The survey showed 89%, while the traffic-based estimate gave only 78% for the legal share. The 11 percentage point gap reflects the well-known weakness of the survey approach: players regularly underreport use of offshore platforms or cannot determine whether a brand holds a Swedish licence.
Offshore share surges to 12% as licensed operators stall
Sweden’s regulated gambling market is losing control of demand. The channelization rate fell to 84% in 2025, missing Spelinspektionen’s 90% target for the third year in a row. In early 2026, the gap widened further: total gambling demand grew 9.7%, while licensed operator revenue rose by only 0.8%.
The weakest point is online casino. Licensed brands still dominate sports betting with 95% of demand, but their casino share is only 68%. The official channelization figure also leaves out skin betting, even though it accounts for 35% of traffic from identified illegal sites. This makes the real offshore pressure larger than the headline number suggests.
Spelpaus.se adds another layer to the problem. More than 120,000 self-excluded users are blocked from legal platforms, but many can still reach offshore sites with higher odds and unregulated skin-betting products. Blask data shows where much of this demand is going: NV Casino. The unlicensed brand grew by more than 1,000% in two months and reached 5th place in Sweden by May 2026, behind only four licensed operators.
Sports frenzy merely masks a structural crisis
Sweden beat Tunisia 5:1 in the opening match of World Cup 2026 — a result that may support licensed bookmakers’ turnover throughout the tournament, bolstering the already higher channelization rate in this vertical. A strong tournament run could push the 2026 headline figure higher.
However, the structural drivers of offshore outflow remain unchanged: access after self-exclusion, skin-betting products outside the licensed perimeter, and fast-growing offshore casino brands already gaining competitive demand share. To get closer to Spelinspektionen’s 90% target, Sweden will need more than a favourable tournament run from its national team.