Prediction markets outpaced traditional iGaming brands in 47 US states in September

Traditional brands still lead in all 50 states, although demand for prediction markets grew in each of them over the year.

In September, Blask Index of prediction market brands such as Polymarket and Kalshi rose 41% in the US, while demand for traditional iGaming operators increased by 14%. Prediction markets now account for 34% of the combined Blask Index, against 19% a year earlier.

Compared with September 2025, prediction market demand is up 63% and traditional demand is down 26%. In 11 of the 12 months since then, prediction market demand moved by a larger percentage than traditional demand, up or down.

Prediction markets’ share rose in all but three states in September. The median state is at 33%, against 16% a year ago. No state has reached 50%: South Dakota is closest at 49%, followed by Maryland and New York.

Spring was stronger. In March prediction markets had more demand than traditional brands in nearly half of the states and held more than half of the combined Blask Index nationally. In August prediction market demand more than halved in a single month, and prediction markets led in none of the 50 states.

September recovered only part of that drop. Prediction market demand is still 57% below March, while traditional demand is about a fifth below January. From peak to trough, prediction market demand lost 70% between March and August, against 29% for traditional brands between January and August.

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