The midterm day nearly quadrupled US prediction market demand
US prediction market demand jumped on the midterm count and was back to its old level a day later.
Blask Index for prediction market brands in the US rose on 3 November, election day, and peaked on 4 November at the highest reading since 5 March. Democrats won both chambers of Congress.
Polymarket added more demand than Kalshi against each brand’s median day from 20 October to 2 November, and the percentage moves were almost the same. The daily lead had already changed hands in late October, and on 4 November Polymarket was back in front for one day.
From 5 November through 9 November, Kalshi was ahead again. PredictIt was the only other prediction-market brand that rose, from a base too small to change the total.
Between midnight and 6 a.m. Eastern on 4 November, Kalshi traded more than four times Polymarket’s volume on 11 midterm markets, a tally of public trades on the two platforms.
Demand on the peak day and volume in the hours after midnight ranked the two brands in opposite order: Polymarket led the search, and Kalshi led the contracts.
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