Prediction markets hold 43% of US demand in October. No European market reaches 10%
No European market gives prediction brands anything like the share they hold in the United States.
Prediction market brands took 43% of combined Blask Index in the US in October, up about nine percentage points from 34% in September, though still below the March peak of 53%. Blask tracks prediction markets in 38 European countries, and every one of them came in below the US.
Luxembourg leads Europe at 9.3%, ahead of France at 8%, though it is a small fraction of France’s size. France’s share nearly doubled from 4.4% in September, Serbia’s more than doubled and Switzerland’s nearly did. The share rose in 26 European markets; it fell in Iceland and edged down in Luxembourg.
Britain has more prediction market demand than France in absolute terms, yet at 1.2% it sits near the bottom of the ranking, with Germany (1%) and Italy (0.3%) lower still. British prediction market demand fell about 5% in October, and its share barely moved.
Kalshi held a majority of prediction market demand in the US, while Polymarket took about four fifths in France, Britain and Switzerland.
The median European market sits at 1.5%, far below the 31% the US had already reached in October 2025. Europe’s largest betting markets — Britain, Germany and Italy — still give prediction brands only a thin slice of demand.
