Blask expands prediction markets tracking to 4 geos — data shows US duopoly stays local

Blask has added the UK, Ireland, Canada and Australia to its prediction markets dataset — and the first published figures show a global landscape that looks nothing like the US.

At the start of 2026, Blask launched prediction markets analytics for the United States. By then, the category had become the fastest-growing vertical in the American market, growing 256% in 2025 while regulators and operators were still debating whether the CFTC or state gambling commissions should oversee event contracts. 

The dataset now covers four additional geos — the UK, Ireland, Canada and Australia — each with 20+ tracked PM brands, category Blask Index and the same competitive ranking Blask uses for casinos and bookmakers.

The American duopoly does not travel beyond the US

In the US, demand for prediction markets has settled into a two-brand race. Kalshi captures a real second position within the Polymarket + Kalshi pair, with its own regulatory history and a push into sports contracts.

Outside the US, that balance collapses — Kalshi’s share in the same pair stays below 6% across the UK, Ireland, Canada and Australia, while Polymarket functions as the category itself for most users who search for a prediction-market platform by name. 

The gap widened after Kalshi doubled down on sports contracts in the US in 2025. Markets where sports betting is already mature — and where bets on non-sporting events have been legal through licensed bookmakers for decades — never needed a federally structured alternative to discover the format.

Legacy exchanges and brokers compete with crypto-native platforms

Outside the US, the competitive field is not limited to crypto-native platforms. Blask analytics points to three patterns:

• Legacy exchanges still hold share. Betdaq, a peer-to-peer betting exchange launched in 2000, captures a large share of search demand in the UK and Ireland. It operates without a classic bookmaker margin, using backs and lays — putting it in direct competition with modern prediction markets for the same audience.
• Brokers blur category lines. Classic brokers and crypto exchanges, including Interactive Brokers, Robinhood, Coinbase and Crypto.com, regularly appear in PM rankings as retail investors search for market access using similar language. In the US, Robinhood’s search demand in a prediction-markets context grew sixfold over the year.
• US bookmakers are building separate PM products. FanDuel and DraftKings are developing event-contract products at home, so Blask tracks them as isolated PM entities. Neither operator has brought that format to the UK, Ireland, Canada or Australia in the current dataset.

The US leads absolute growth — the UK starts from the highest base

Prediction markets are growing everywhere, but at different speeds and from different starting points.

• The US is the absolute growth leader: from January 2025 to May 2026, the category grew almost sevenfold on interest in sports event markets and Polymarket’s path through a CFTC structure. 
• Canada and Australia show the next-fastest percentage gains, though from a relatively low base. 
• The UK grows more slowly in percentage terms but starts from the highest initial volume— non-sporting event bets have been legal here for decades. 
• Ireland is the local outlier: fantasy has historically dominated, while prediction markets sit near the bottom of the category list; at the same time, Kalshi posted one of the sharpest rises in the dataset on an ultra-low base.

Prediction markets remain mid-tier — but demand is visible worldwide

Despite the overall rise, prediction markets across all five geos remain a mid-tier niche for now, ranking around 15th–20th in Blask Index and trailing online casinos, lotteries and classic betting. No country has yet separated prediction markets into a standalone regulatory category, but search demand for them has become consistently visible worldwide.