- Updated:
- Published:
Polymarket and Nasdaq Private Market open prediction markets for private companies
Polymarket has launched event contracts on SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic through a partnership with Nasdaq Private Market, expanding beyond sports and politics into the pre-IPO equity landscape.
On May 19, Polymarket announced a partnership with Nasdaq Private Market (NPM). The platform launched contracts tied to some of the world’s largest private companies. Users can trade outcomes around company valuations, IPO timing and secondary-market activity.
Unlike shares, these contracts do not give users equity in a company or shareholder rights. Participants trade the outcome of a specific event — an IPO, a new valuation round or a secondary transaction — after which the contract is resolved with a payout to one side. NPM provides the data used to settle the contracts: since 2013, the company has developed infrastructure for private-company share transactions, including tender offers, auctions and secondary-market deals.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic: $5B without a public price tag
The launch comes as the market awaits major IPOs from private technology companies, led by SpaceX. The company has already filed documents with the SEC, the US securities regulator, and could go public in June 2026 at a valuation of around $1.75B.
Polymarket turns that expectation into a tradable market: users buy contracts on the valuation range at which SpaceX could list. The market currently gives a 58% probability to the $1.75B–$2B range and 35% to the $2B–$2.25B range.
OpenAI and Anthropic are also viewed as possible IPO candidates in 2026, with valuations above $1B each.
Equity in the largest private companies remain inaccessible before IPO. Access to their shares is usually limited to funds, early investors, employees and participants in secondary transactions. Polymarket and NPM channel a fraction of this restricted market into a public prediction space, where users trade the probability of events around these companies — an IPO, a new valuation or a secondary deal.
Polymarket moves into private markets as a US leader
For Polymarket, the launch of private-company contracts expands its product line from a leading position in the US. According to Blask, the platform held 72.48% of BAP among prediction market brands in the country in the latest snapshot. Kalshi ranked second with 23.61%, meaning the two platforms together accounted for more than 96% of the category. Other players remained far below: Myriad held 1.41%, Manifold 1.01%, and PredictIt 0.39%.
Blask Index trend shows the same gap over time. Polymarket stayed ahead of Kalshi throughout the period, while both platforms noticeably increased their search visibility in the second half of 2025. The dotted segments on the chart represent estimated values, so March and April should be read as a preliminary view of the trend.
This is an important context for the Nasdaq Private Market deal. Polymarket is adding private-company contracts after establishing itself as the largest prediction market brand in the US by search-based demand.