Licensed sites were still paying withdrawals when offshore search set a new high.
On 25 September President Lula banned fixed-odds betting and online casino in Brazil. Licensed sites go offline on 6 October. In the 90 days before the decree, 57% of Brazilian bettors had already visited an unlicensed site, and Blask’s calculation from India’s ban puts 21.6 million licensed bettors still playing offshore. The five days after the signature are where that shift shows up in search.
Search demand after the decree
The decree moved the offshore / onshore split on the next day after it was signed.
The line stays flat through 26 September and breaks on the 27th. By 30 September the offshore share is the highest full day since the licensed market opened. Onshore brands still hold the large majority. What changed is the pace.
Those two figures were in place before Friday’s decree.
India’s real-money ban in August 2025 is the basis for the 21.6 million: most players kept betting, and they did it offshore. Ricardo Bianco Rosada, founder of brmkt.co, expects the same move to speed up in Brazil once licensed sites close on 6 October, because the illegal market never left.
«The ban does not create that market. It hands it the other 30 million customers, the ones who until now were betting on sites that could see them».
Ricardo Bianco Rosada, Founder of brmkt.co
Affiliate coverage in the same five days
The decree also bans advertising and intermediation, and the listings thinned in the same window.
Every brand in the group of 20 lost sites. Stake is the name left at the top. Luiz Felippe Correia de Almeida, CEO of Smart Social, says affiliates that depend only on Brazil are under the most pressure: budgets are moving to other countries, and reaching Brazilian audiences another way can draw fines of up to 10% of group turnover.
«Affiliates that depend only on Brazil are under the most pressure».
Luiz Felippe Correia de Almeida, CEO of Smart Social
Bottom line
Search had already broken, and the licensed sites were still online. Blask’s reading of India’s ban is that most of those bettors stay, on offshore sites. What 6 October does to the line is still open.
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